Journal of Theoretical Medicine
Volume 2 (2000), Issue 4, Pages 267-274
doi:10.1080/10273660008833053

Modeling HIV Epidemic under Contact Tracing — The Cuban Case

H. De Arazoza,1 R. Lounes,2 T. Hoang,2 and Y. Interian1

1Departamento Ecuaciones Diferenciales, Facultad Mat-Comp, Universidad de la Habana, San Lázaro y L Habana 4, Cuba
2Université René Descartes, Laboratoire de Statistique Médicale, UPRES A CNRS 8071, 45 rue des Sants-Pères 75006 Paris, France

Received 22 November 1998; Accepted 9 August 1999

Copyright © 2000 Hindawi Publishing Corporation. This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

Abstract

A nonlinear model is developed for an epidemic with contact tracing, and its dynamic is studied. A linear version of the model is presented in both deterministic and stochastic versions. We present the data for the cuban HIV/AIDS epidemic and fit the linear model to the data, we obtain estimates for the size of the Cuban HIV epidemic.